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Recent Papers

Mark Herse et al. A demographic model to support customary management of a culturally important waterfowl species. Ecology and Society 27(3): 14 (2022)

David Fletcher and Tim Jowett. Single-fit bootstrapping: A simple alternative to the delta method. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 13: 1358–1367 (2022)

David Fletcher, Jamie Newman, Sam McKechnie, Corey Bragg, Peter Dillingham, Rosemary Clucas, Darren Scott, Sebastian Uhlmann, Phil Lyver, Andrew Gormley, Stewart Bull, Kayne Davis, Renata Davis, Riki Davis, Tane Davis, Lania Edwards, Jane Kitson, Tina Nixon, Michael Skerrett, and Henrik Moller. Projected impacts of climate change, bycatch, harvesting, and predation on the Aotearoa New Zealand tītī (Ardenna grisea) population. Marine Ecology Progress Series 670: 223-238 (2021).

Sam McKechnie, David Fletcher, Jamie Newman, Corey Bragg, Peter Dillingham, Rosemary Clucas, Darren Scott, Sebastian Uhlmann, Phil Lyver, Andrew Gormley, Rakiura Tītī Islands Administering Body, and Henrik Moller. Separating the effects of climate, bycatch, predation and harvesting on tītī (Ardenna grisea) population dynamics in New Zealand: A model-based assessment. PloS one 15.12: e0243794 (2020).

Farzana Afroz, Matt Parry and David Fletcher. Estimating overdispersion in sparse multinomial data. Biometrics 76: 834–842 (2020)

David Fletcher, Peter Dillingham and Jiaxu Zeng. Model-averaged confidence distributions. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 26: 367–384 (2019)

Jiaxu Zeng, David Fletcher, Peter Dillingham and Chris Cornwall. Studentized bootstrap model-averaged tail area intervals. PLOS ONE 14: e0213715 (2019)

Peter Dillingham, Jeffrey Moore, David Fletcher, Enric Cortés, Alexandra Curtis, Kelsey James and Rebecca Lewison. Improved estimation of intrinsic growth rmax: integrating matrix models and allometry. Ecological Applications 26: 322–333 (2016)

Michael Schaub and David Fletcher. Estimating immigration using a Bayesian integrated population model: choice of parametrisation and priors. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 22:535–549 (2015)

Recent Talks

Effects of Climate, Bycatch, Predation and Harvesting on the Population Dynamics of Tītī (Ardenna grisea) in New Zealand. Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, 2022

Single-fit bootstrapping. Otago University, 2019

Confidence distributions. Massey University and Otago University, 2018

What is n? Otago University, 2017

Statistical guidelines for scientists. Otago University, 2015

Model averaging. Otago University, 2015

Model-averaged confidence intervals. Hong Kong Baptist University, 2013

Code

An R package for calculating model-averaged (MATA) confidence intervals and confidence distributions, written by Daniel Turek, is available here. It is based on the work in Turek and Fletcher (2012) and Fletcher, Dillingham and Zeng (2019).